The recent action in the $USD and $TNX (there are several $USD & Bond charts on that same list) paint a good picture of what the market is expecting and preparing for around the FOMC meet on Jan 26-27. With the $USD being fairly valued around 76-77 and the absence of the carry trade taking pressure off too, it has become a flight to safety for at least the short term again. Bonds have been preparing for this for a the last few months too, but seem setup for another decent bounce off support around the FOMC meet. In the past, stocks rallied as you would expect with bonds, but this time it might be different especially given the valuations and recent deterioration in the technical view.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
It is interesting to note that in early 2004, $TRAN underperformance increased significantly well ahead of the broader market and long before $WLSH corrected back below its 200 day sma.
The only real laggard here in this chart is the $XBD, which may catch up real soon around this earnings season.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
If 2004 is any guide, it was about this same time of that rally when the Broker Dealers started to underperform greatly. All the recent M&A since we came off the lows is a good indication that the there was real value out there and many were positioning for future economic recovery, but that activity is likely to slow down now until next year. Financials in general have been down due to recent legislation proposals that are not favorable to them, so, IF, those are resolved favorably, then MAYBE that sector will rally again and catch up with the broader market.
(this has nothing to do with the $XBD, but had to make note of it)
As far as the $SPX goes, the lows from last week will be watched VERY close next week. If they are not taken out, then there is a good chance the rally holds and maybe makes a slightly higher high next week.
The $VIX 30 minute chart made some interesting divergences last week as the market was hitting the top and bottom end of its range. Even though the $VIX made higher lows as the $SPX was testing the 1150 resistance on Thursday (a bearish sign), it did make lower highs as the $SPX was testing the low end around 1130 on Friday (a bullish sign). I have to say this leaves room for upside especially if the $VIX makes a lower low than it did on last Thursday as $SPX tries to break 1150 again. If the $VIX does that then the setup will be obvious for a breakout to 1164 soon especially if $VIX then makes a lower higher again as $SPX pulls back from 1150 again! Caution is evident in the charts and since many floor traders look at Gann Theory, it is good reason to expect this kind of caution to be appearing in these indicators.